Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
