A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
